Modeling the Current and future potential distribution of Arabis alpina using MaxEnt softwarein selected mountains of Ethiopia.

Abstract

Theobjective of this study was to model the current and future distributions of the plant species, Arabis alpina,using MaxEnt software. Accordingly,atotal of 70locations datawere used for this investigation. The occurrence record of this species was obtained from herbarium of Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute andGoogle Earthversion 7from highlandareas of Ethiopia. Climate data with a spatial resolution of 30 s (approximately 1 km2), was downloaded from world climate database website.The result of this analysis confirmedthat the average test ofAUC is 0.970. This is an excellent model forthe selected variables since the AUC value was more than 0.90.Thetest of the jackknife indicatedthe current distribution of Arabis alpinawas mainly influenced by Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and the Min Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6) that contributed 74.9% and 17.5% to the MaxEnt model respectively. Regarding the futureclimatic condition the result of this investigation indicated that the average test of AUC was 0.959. The jackknife test wasalso indicatedthe future distribution of Arabis alpinawas mainly influenced byprecipitation of wettest Quarter (bio16) that contributed 95.1% to the MaxEnt model. Generally,the picture of the model of current climatic conditions indicated that Arabisalpinaoccurs in mosthighland areas of Ethiopian butthe model for future climatic condition indicated that this plant will be restricted to few areasof the country.This might me due to climate change, anthropogenic degradation and invasivealien species. In addition,from the picture of the model there might be shifting of habitat from the lower altitude tothe higher altitude .This maybe due to an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Therefore, this study recommends the integration of futureclimate situation into current restoration and conservation policies to protect ecologically sensitive species of the country.